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CP Rail Forecast for 2007

January 29, 2007

Brothers and Sisters,

When you read the following, you really have to wonder at their bargaining strategies.

In solidarity,

Bill Brehl
President
TCRCMWED

Canadian Pacific Railway announces 2007 capex to $885M-$895M from $845M

CALGARY (CP) - Canadian Pacific Railway (CP.TO) plans to spend between $885 million and $895 million in 2007, mainly on improvements to its rack infrastructure, adding locomotive power and building its information technology.

The major rail carrier said Thursday it plans to spend $40 million to maintain and increase capacity in automotive and intermodal terminals, $150 million on locomotive acquisitions, overhauls and fuel-saving modifications, $60 million on railway operations and customer shipments information technology.

It will also spend $625 million to maintain and upgrade rail, ballast, crossties and automated signal systems, buildings and equipment and other physical assets as well as for land acquisitions for future development.

The rest will be used for modifications and upgrades to the freight car fleet "to more closely align with customer requirements."

"CPR's planned capital investments are targeted at further improving the fluidity of our network, while maintaining the reliability and safety of our infrastructure," president and CEO Fred Green said in a release.

"These investments support our strategic initiatives, our focus on execution excellence and drive to improve CPR's operating ratio. This capital plan, implemented with the ingenuity of our employees, will keep us on track to become the safest, most fluid railway in North America."

CPR spent about $845 million in 2006.

Canadian Pacific Railway sees 2007 earnings growth of 9 to 13 per cent

CALGARY (CP) - Canadian Pacific Railway (CP.TO) expects improved efficiencies and more international demand to bolster earnings in 2007, the railway said Thursday.

"Growth in emerging economies like China and India will fuel demand for natural resources," chief executive officer Fred Green told an annual analyst presentation.

"This bodes well for railways with a strong bulk franchise like CPR."

Green noted that despite a tough start to 2006 in potash exports and very poor coal volumes, the company is on track to deliver its projected growth of five to eight per cent for the year.

Calgary-based CP Rail is expecting potash and coal to make strong comebacks in the coming months, while global demand for grain is also expected to increase. About 45 per cent of the railway's fortunes are tied to global trade.

The railway is forecasting earnings per share will rise by nine to 13 per cent in 2007, with revenue up by four to six per cent. Next year's earnings per share excluding currency effects and one-time items are expected to be in the range of $4.30 to $4.45.

This would be up from $3.95, the top end of recently revised 2006 earnings guidance.

Over the last 18 months, the railway has moved to becoming more streamlined. Those efforts are to continue in 2007, with CP Rail intending to cut between $30 and $35 million in operating costs, said Brock Winter, vice-president of operations.

That comes after the railway reduced costs by $20 million in 2005 and makes progress toward trimming a further $35 million by the end of this year.

"We believe by operating a more consistent and faster railroad, we'll generate capacity for growth," said Winter.

The company has expanded to more seven-day operations and is examining if 24-hour operations result in better utilized railcars.

"We're balanced, we're cycling mobile assets, we're flushing out our yards: it's effectively a conveyor belt," said Winter.

CP Rail plans to expand corridor capacity in Lanigan, Sask., north of Regina, to handle potash volumes that will be bound largely for export through the port of Vancouver.

The company will also review more than 600 interline operating agreements worth $400 million a year to see if there are places cut costs. "This will be a major focus for us in 2007," said Winter.

Capital investment for 2007 is forecast at about $890 million, up from $840 million to $845 million this year.

That was a modest surprise, said Fadi Chamoun of UBS Research.

"We were expecting spending to slow following last year's expansion of the Western corridor and given the modest volume growth outlook," Chamoun said in a research note. "Higher spending could be a positive factor where it is targeting improved efficiency, but payback doesn't appear to be quick, based on projected margins."

The company's 2007 outlook assumes crude oil prices averaging US$65 per barrel, a Canadian dollar worth 90 cents US, and North American economic growth of 2.7 per cent.

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